Same
Ol, Same Ol
January 7, 2003
Well here we are again - a new beginning, a New Year etc. etc.
Whatever.
You'd
almost think there was some sort of magic dust that you could throw
in the air and everything that was bad about last year would just
disappear at the stroke of midnight.
Not
so, he says with a sarcastic smile. Let's just have a little look
at what is the same!
1.
War. The whole concept of war still absolutely baffles my mind.
Not only has that good 'ol boy George W escalated the whole Iraq
thing to the point where the weather matters as to when they attack,
but in the process he figures North Korea would be a nice place
to spend a little time in the Presidential Hummer. Now don't get
me wrong, I'm elated that our friends to the south have all those
big guns and take the time to acknowledge Canada's existence every
now and then, but to quote Nancy Reagan - "Just say no".
It does kinda make ya think that George W has been puffing a little
too much of the Presidential stash.
2.
Economics. My chosen profession. What the F*&% was I thinking
- thank the lord it pays well to be wrong a lot. As a matter of
fact, the only career comparison that I can make to an economist
is a weatherman/woman (my 2003 resolution - political correctness).
Both professions even call what they do the same - forecasting.
Let's define the term. Forecast - to calculate or estimate something
in advance, to predict the future. Move over Miss. Cleo, there are
a group of economists and meteorologists at 1-900, you get the point.
Looking
at these two issues closely would suggest that they are related
in many ways. War, many would suggest is good for the economy. That
may have been true in the 30's and 40's, but the Korean War and
Vietnam War were massive drains on the economies' of North America.
The Vietnam War alone was responsible for the massive debt load
that the US is still dealing with today.
The
Gulf War, as short as it was, cost somewhere in the range of $61
Billion USD (added to the debt load). Of course the latter half
of the nineties and early 2000 proved to be an incredible period
of economic growth in North America as the tech bubble started to
fill. Interest rates were low and the consumer led economy prospered.
(Note: Approximately 65% of Gross Domestic Product is driven by
the consumer with consumer debt in Canada currently in excess of
$700 Billion).
Then,
as the saying goes, "
what goes up, must come down".
The tech bubble burst in the spring of 2000 with the September 11th
tragedy following six months later. Governments scrambled to assure
us all that everything was okay by adding money to the economy by
continually reducing interest rates (Monetary Policy) and adding
money through increased government spending (Fiscal Policy). This
has caused the consumer to stay in the game and borrow and spend
on everything from Beyblades to Houses.
Here's
the catch however - any conflict, regardless of who, when and where
is expensive. Add to that the conflict that will likely occur is
in the area where the bulk of the world's petroleum is produced
and you have a recipe for inflation increasing interest rates causing
loan, mortgage and credit card defaults. Not to mention the cost
of filling up the tank!
This
war will not help the economy in any way.
It
will however cause me and my cronies to, "run to the hills",
and Rossland is the place to run to. The snow has finally come and
the sliding is great from what I hear.
The
sliding in the east has also been exceptional, but the crowds have
been horrendous. Of course with lots or people come lots of accidents.
I spent the better part of two days picking up the pieces of people
that were so out of control, racing in areas they shouldn't have
been, skiing in the glades with no experience and the greatest faux
pas of all - the lack of helmet use.
Now
I'm old school and only use my helmet when I race, but after what
I saw this past holiday season my melon is covered at all times.
When I get to Red this year, it's coming with me. I figure I've
been lucky all these years bouncing through the trees, over cliffs
etc.etc. and haven't hit anything too hard. The law of averages
would suggest that this at some point will change.
Yes
my little chubby buddy, the protective headgear is as important
as my avi gear (beacon, probes etc.) and I will have a Red Mountain
sticker on it soon!
Lastly,
on a sad note, I heard early this week that Aaron Allibone, a young
local succumbed to his injuries and passed away after getting caught
in a slide on the Head Wall while shooting a couple of buds. Tragedies
of this magnitude, early in the season should cause us all to be
aware of what's possible and prepare to the best of our ability
to get the odds on our side. (See above).
My
sympathies go out to his entire family and friends.
Lets
all for now folks!
Rock on!
- Sall
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