Same Ol, Same Ol
January 7, 2003

Well here we are again - a new beginning, a New Year etc. etc.

Whatever.

You'd almost think there was some sort of magic dust that you could throw in the air and everything that was bad about last year would just disappear at the stroke of midnight.

Not so, he says with a sarcastic smile. Let's just have a little look at what is the same!

1. War. The whole concept of war still absolutely baffles my mind. Not only has that good 'ol boy George W escalated the whole Iraq thing to the point where the weather matters as to when they attack, but in the process he figures North Korea would be a nice place to spend a little time in the Presidential Hummer. Now don't get me wrong, I'm elated that our friends to the south have all those big guns and take the time to acknowledge Canada's existence every now and then, but to quote Nancy Reagan - "Just say no". It does kinda make ya think that George W has been puffing a little too much of the Presidential stash.

2. Economics. My chosen profession. What the F*&% was I thinking - thank the lord it pays well to be wrong a lot. As a matter of fact, the only career comparison that I can make to an economist is a weatherman/woman (my 2003 resolution - political correctness). Both professions even call what they do the same - forecasting. Let's define the term. Forecast - to calculate or estimate something in advance, to predict the future. Move over Miss. Cleo, there are a group of economists and meteorologists at 1-900, you get the point.

Looking at these two issues closely would suggest that they are related in many ways. War, many would suggest is good for the economy. That may have been true in the 30's and 40's, but the Korean War and Vietnam War were massive drains on the economies' of North America. The Vietnam War alone was responsible for the massive debt load that the US is still dealing with today.

The Gulf War, as short as it was, cost somewhere in the range of $61 Billion USD (added to the debt load). Of course the latter half of the nineties and early 2000 proved to be an incredible period of economic growth in North America as the tech bubble started to fill. Interest rates were low and the consumer led economy prospered. (Note: Approximately 65% of Gross Domestic Product is driven by the consumer with consumer debt in Canada currently in excess of $700 Billion).

Then, as the saying goes, "…what goes up, must come down". The tech bubble burst in the spring of 2000 with the September 11th tragedy following six months later. Governments scrambled to assure us all that everything was okay by adding money to the economy by continually reducing interest rates (Monetary Policy) and adding money through increased government spending (Fiscal Policy). This has caused the consumer to stay in the game and borrow and spend on everything from Beyblades to Houses.

Here's the catch however - any conflict, regardless of who, when and where is expensive. Add to that the conflict that will likely occur is in the area where the bulk of the world's petroleum is produced and you have a recipe for inflation increasing interest rates causing loan, mortgage and credit card defaults. Not to mention the cost of filling up the tank!

This war will not help the economy in any way.

It will however cause me and my cronies to, "run to the hills", and Rossland is the place to run to. The snow has finally come and the sliding is great from what I hear.

The sliding in the east has also been exceptional, but the crowds have been horrendous. Of course with lots or people come lots of accidents. I spent the better part of two days picking up the pieces of people that were so out of control, racing in areas they shouldn't have been, skiing in the glades with no experience and the greatest faux pas of all - the lack of helmet use.

Now I'm old school and only use my helmet when I race, but after what I saw this past holiday season my melon is covered at all times. When I get to Red this year, it's coming with me. I figure I've been lucky all these years bouncing through the trees, over cliffs etc.etc. and haven't hit anything too hard. The law of averages would suggest that this at some point will change.

Yes my little chubby buddy, the protective headgear is as important as my avi gear (beacon, probes etc.) and I will have a Red Mountain sticker on it soon!

Lastly, on a sad note, I heard early this week that Aaron Allibone, a young local succumbed to his injuries and passed away after getting caught in a slide on the Head Wall while shooting a couple of buds. Tragedies of this magnitude, early in the season should cause us all to be aware of what's possible and prepare to the best of our ability to get the odds on our side. (See above).

My sympathies go out to his entire family and friends.

Lets all for now folks!
Rock on!

- Sall


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